Market Moves: 17 June 2026

Both US and Australian markets headed higher as inflation was cooler-than-expected and crude oil closed below US$90 a barrel for the first time since April.¹ Investors were also graced with one of the most hotly anticipated IPOs of all-time, Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

US equities closed the week higher, though gains were uneven, with the Russell 2000 (RSSL) surging +3.9% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added a more modest +0.7%. The dominant narrative was geopolitics, as hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough reopening the Strait of Hormuz eased inflation concerns and providing a meaningful tailwind to risk assets.² Adding to the bullish mood was the blockbuster IPO of SpaceX, which closed its first trading day up +19%, cementing a market cap of $2.1 trillion and vaulting the company into the position of the sixth-largest in the US market.³ On inflation, headline CPI rose to +4.2% year over year, though monthly core CPI moderated to +0.2%, offering some underlying comfort.⁴ Attention now turns to the FOMC meeting, new Chair Kevin Warsh's first, where any shift in tone on persistent inflation will be closely scrutinised.

Australian shares rose around 2%, led by a sharp rally in the materials sector as industrial and precious metals staged a broad rebound from recent lows. The price action increasingly suggests investors are beginning to position for a post-peak disruption environment, particularly as Brent crude slipped below US$90 a barrel on growing hopes that the worst of the Iran-driven oil shock is behind us.⁵ For Australia, which remains heavily dependent on energy imports, easing crude prices are offering meaningful relief to both inflation and growth concerns.

In the world of commodities:

• Gold (GOLD) surged back above US$4,300 per ounce as the US and Iran signalled they were ready to sign a peace deal which would open the Strait of Hormuz.⁶ The announcements sent crude oil sharply lower and lowered inflation expectations.
• Crude oil (BCOM) underperformed and struck a three-month low of US$82 per barrel as markets increasingly priced in a peace deal between the US and Iran. The peace deal is scheduled to be signed in Switzerland by the 19th of June.⁷

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